The world would face a looming oil supply crisis because of drop in the production, Iran's OPEC governor has warned, adding that crude is still undervalued and set to hit $100 in the short term.
The Japanese PM's visit to Assam comes amid festering uneasiness in Tokyo about Beijing's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.
Analysts warn that global markets are significantly underpricing the risk of an oil price shock, with Brent crude potentially soaring to $150 per barrel if the West Asia conflict escalates or damages critical oil and gas infrastructure. This could lead to severe inflation and economic repercussions, particularly for import-dependent nations like India.
After a three-month slowdown, India's oil imports (already landed) from Russia bounced back in the first 15 days of October to 1.8 million barrels per day.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised down India's GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6.6 per cent from an earlier 6.9 per cent, primarily attributing the change to elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. Despite this moderation, India is still expected to remain the world's fastest-growing major economy.
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has expressed caution regarding 'extreme volatility' risks stemming from the West Asian conflict, which could impact global oil demand and the company's margins, while also noting that near-term retail consumption demand may remain sensitive to macro conditions. Chairman Mukesh Ambani, in the annual report, remained silent on the timeline for Jio Platforms' anticipated public listing, stating the group will 'continue to evaluate strategic pathways'.
Global energy markets saw a significant correction as oil prices nosedived following Iran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz has been fully reopened, dismantling the 'war-risk' premium that had gripped the market.
The Indian government has issued a stern warning to industrial users who are reportedly procuring cheaper retail fuel instead of industrial-grade fuel, leading to significant losses for state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) and potential local shortages. This diversion, driven by a substantial price difference between retail and bulk diesel, is adversely impacting OMCs, which are absorbing daily losses of approximately 550 crore to keep retail prices stable.
The Gulf countries on Monday welcomed a peace deal reached between the US and Iran to end their conflict and called for protection of maritime routes and freedom of international navigation, including the uninterrupted flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Bessent indicated that the U.S. is evaluating the status of Iranian oil as the current campaign progresses.
In a statement issued by Iran's consulate in Mumbai, it said, "At present, Iran essentially has no floating crude or surplus available for international markets. The US Treasury Secretary's remarks appear aimed at reassuring buyers and managing market sentiment."
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the Iran conflict and its impact on global energy supplies during a phone call.
Qatar has halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after its facilities came under attack amid the ongoing West Asia conflict, disrupting supplies to India and squeezing feedstock availability for key domestic sectors.
British armed forces, including Royal Marine Commandos, intercepted the Russian shadow fleet oil tanker SMYRTOS in the English Channel, marking the UK's first such operation. The action aims to disrupt Russia's funding for its war in Ukraine, with the UK government highlighting the shadow fleet's role in sustaining Moscow's military efforts.
The US has temporarily permitted India to accept Russian oil already on ships to ensure energy supplies amid the conflict with Iran. This short-term measure is not expected to significantly benefit Russia financially.
Speaking to reporters during a cabinet meeting at the White House on Thursday, Trump said the US had engaged in 'very substantial talks' with Iranian officials and described the tanker movement as proof of seriousness in the discussions.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar discussed the West Asia conflict and its impact on energy supplies with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov and EU's Foreign Policy chief Kaja Kallas.
Domestic cooking gas (LPG) prices have increased by Rs 29 per cylinder, marking the second hike in three months due to rising global energy costs. This follows broader fuel price increases for petrol, diesel, and CNG, with state-owned retailers still incurring significant losses despite the revisions.
India's economy registered a robust 7.7 per cent growth in the fiscal year 2025-26, an increase from 7.1 per cent in the previous year, with the January-March quarter alone seeing a 7.8 per cent expansion.
Indian refiners are negotiating for additional crude cargoes from the US, Russia, and West Africa to ensure adequate supplies amid Middle East tensions. Refineries are maintaining normal processing rates and deferring maintenance to build reserves. The move comes as conflict impacts tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that the central bank is closely monitoring whether the supply shock from the West Asia conflict will lead to a generalised price rise, potentially necessitating monetary policy action.
India imports nearly 60 percent of its LPG, with most cargo previously coming through the Strait of Hormuz, now closed for commercial shipping.
Indian oil-marketing companies (OMCs) have incurred LPG underrecoveries of approximately Rs 22,000 crore between March and May 2026, as domestic cooking gas prices failed to keep pace with surging international rates exacerbated by the West Asia crisis, according to a Crisil report.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept its key lending rate, the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25 per cent for the second consecutive time, citing concerns over rising energy prices, supply disruptions from the West Asia crisis, and potential inflationary pressures.
A senior government official says the idea is to facilitate mutually beneficial ways to keep the supply going.
A senior government official asserts India's independence in purchasing Russian oil, stating that US sanctions waivers merely remove friction but do not dictate India's energy policy. The official highlights India's commitment to energy security and affordability for its citizens.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed concerns about inflation becoming generalised and highlighted uncertainties surrounding both inflation and growth prospects due to the West Asia conflict, according to the recently released minutes.
A convoy of India-bound ships carrying crude oil and gas was stopped by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to several vessels returning to the Persian Gulf.
Indian-flagged vessels are navigating the Strait of Hormuz safely despite ongoing tensions in the region, ensuring the continued flow of vital energy supplies to India.
The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil already in transit to ease soaring global crude prices, making 140 million barrels available to the market.
India on Friday launched a highly coordinated, priority operation to safely guide 13 Indian-flagged commercial vessels out of the volatile Strait of Hormuz, the ministry of ports, shipping, and waterways announced on Friday.
Indian private sector and State-run refiners continued to receive crude oil from Russian suppliers even after November 21 -- the winding-down date for US sanctions on supplies from leading Russian oil producers imposed in October -- as new intermediaries sprung up in West Asia to sell the oil, according to senior refining sources and ship tracking data.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a sharp decline in early trading due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, driving crude oil prices higher. Global market bearishness and foreign fund outflows further contributed to investor unease.
India summoned the Iranian envoy after two Indian vessels had to reverse course in the Strait of Hormuz following an incident of firing by Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Indian benchmark stock indices, Sensex and Nifty, surged over 1 per cent, driven by optimism surrounding potential US-Iran peace talks and a significant drop in crude oil prices below the USD 100 per barrel mark. This de-escalation in geopolitical concerns and easing inflation pressures provided a substantial boost to investor sentiment.
India has significantly reduced Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices for international airlines by 27% due to easing global fuel benchmarks, while simultaneously increasing commercial LPG and 5-kg cylinder prices to record highs.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant sell-off, with the Sensex tumbling over 1,300 points, driven by escalating crude oil prices due to US-Iran tensions and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for austerity measures, which amplified investor concerns about India's economic outlook.
India has expressed 'deep worry' and strongly protested to the US after three merchant ships carrying Indian crew members came under attack from the American military off the coast of Oman in four days, resulting in the deaths of three Indian seafarers.
India and the United States have reviewed progress on a proposed interim bilateral trade agreement, discussing market access, digital trade, and non-tariff barriers, as they race to finalise a deal before a temporary 10 per cent US tariff regime expires on July 24.
Calling such reports baseless, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said there was no such move under consideration.
